Wednesday, 3 March 2010

CCS is okay but it's not a silver bullet

Life is full of difficult decisions. Idealism has it's place but on its own it cannot save the world.
As much as I would always want to see a shift to renewable energy as the preferred approach to solving our climate change problems I also acknowledge that we need to consider all the solutions we have at our disposal.


Carbon Capture & Storage
In the past I have thought of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a false solution that does nothing more than kick the problem under the bed in an attempt to make the room look clean. This is not necessarily the case. If we treated CCS as our only 'solution' and did nothing else then that analogy would ring true. In looking for a 'solution' half the battle lies in understanding and defining the 'problem' in the first place.

However, if CCS is used as a way of temporarily solving an atmospheric emissions problem and buying us the time to step back from a precipice so that we can address the issues that need our attention then avoiding CCS would be irresponsible. Applying CCS and doing nothing else is equally irresponsible.

Sustainability as a form of emergence
Using CCS in the long run is not sustainable and is therefore not a solution to our sustainability challenges. It is, however, a way of managing the sustainability challenge in the short term. It raises the theoretical possibility that sustainable management requires a sequence of activities, which when considered as discrete stand alone actions are fundamentally unsustainable on their own, but when aggregated together result in a sustainable continuum over time. In this way sustainability emerges as an effect from a system of unsustainable parts.

Getting the balance right
The risk of thinking this way is that one may be tempted to believe that short-term unsustainability is tolerable and that there is no need to work at developing more sustainable solutions. What we actually need are two groups who think differently and have the freedom to work on their own approach. We need the person who is developing the next sustainable solution, but we also need the person who is making the current interim solution work despite the fact that it is not the ultimate solution. This balance between idealism and pragmatism is essential for the longer term sustainability effect to have a chance to emerge from the combined effort.

Homogeneity invites risk while diversity fosters balance
We need diversity of thought to be able to give us a point of balance. We need the conflict of ideologies to explore new solutions that enable us to adapt to change. If everyone thinks the same way and behaves the same way then we loose that balance. If we are all clones then we will allow our social system to gravitate towards a survival boundary and burst with traumatic consequences. Our financial systems have taught us these lessons. Take the property market as an example. If we all think that property is the best investment for spare cash then everyone invests in property, we get inflated property prices and we end up with a bubble in the property market. So it seems as though diversity is the key to maintaining a healthy balance.

No silver bullet
Ironically it appears that Silver bullets have a higher probability of killing you than they do of saving you. This makes me think there is no such thing as a silver bullet solution. On the contrary, if something looks like a silver bullet solution it should be a warning.

Heisenberg uncertainty Not knowing exactly what the "right" solution is appears to be a blessing in disguise. It gives us the necessary space we need within which to move. It gives us the freedom to adopt different positions, which are essential to establish some sort of balance. Whether that balance can be maintained and whether it is stable is a different matter. Uncertainty, however uncomfortable it may be, appears to be good and healthy for us.